By ’50, India will have most people

Country will pip China, boast a 1,198m population Viju B | TNN  Mumbai: India is going to be the world's most populous country in the next 40 years, says a report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on Thursday.      India will overtake China by 2050, with a population of 1,198 million people, while China will become the second-most populous nation with 1,417 million people by 2050.      Currently, China is the most populated country in the world with 1,345.8 million people. India comes a close second at 1,198 million.      But China's strict family planning measures, especially the 'one family, one child' policy have yielded results and the rate of projected population growth between 2005 and 2010 is just 0.6%, while India grew at 1.4% in the same period. "India's population will grow for, say, another 25 years and then stabilise. We can see a decline in population after that while China had taken population control measures much ahead of us,'' said Dr D K Mangal, state coordinator of UNFPA.      Infant mortality deaths in India in the past five years were more than double as those in China and Brazil. While 85 males and 95 girls below five years of age died per a 1,000 births in India, in China 25 boys and 36 girls died, and in Brazil, 33 male children and 25 female children died in the same period, the report said.      India's fertility rate was 2.44% while China had a lower fertility rate of 1.77%. "The fertility rate also includes parameters like increase in awareness about family planning and reproductive health and literacy. Many poorer countries in African state have higher fertility rate and also higher infant mortality rate,'' Mangal said.      The per capita energy consumption of India is 510 kilogram while China's average energy consumption is 1,433 kilogram, the UNFPA report said.      India has 30% of its land area under urban cover while China has around 44%.      UNFPA officials said social and economic indicators provides a broad trend about the quality of life of people living in these countries and more importantly, the pattern of consumption.      "The western model of development of looking at the GDP as the only parameter for growth is going to damage the environment in a big way. We need alternative modes of development which are sustainable so that carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced.      Natural disasters like unprecedented floods and droughts are results of global warming and rise in temperature,'' said Vandana Krishna, secretary, department of child and family welfare.

We cannot underestimate the H1N1 virus, warn docs

But Approval For Real-Time PCR Machine Was Given By BMC Only Last Week TIMES NEWS NETWORK  There has been no change in the condition of the 54-year-old woman who is fighting swine flu and its complications in the special ICU at Nair Hospital since November 14. "She has neither deteriorated nor improved,'' is all that the doctors are willing to say about the Mira Road resident who is on ventilator support. Considering that Mumbai has not had such a critically ill patient in the last month or so, the case is a timely reminder about swine flu and its potential to wreak a havoc.      Says chest specialist Dr Ashok Mahasur, "If the temperature dips suddenly, swine flu could certainly come back.'' Across the world, he says, there has been no relaxation in anti-swine flu measures. "We cannot be complacent or underestimate the H1N1 virus,'' Dr Mahasur adds.      The first wave of swine flu claimed 27 lives in the city, with 19 occurring in civic hospitals. Over 1,400 patients have tested positive for the virus so far, with over 65,000 screened so far.      The problem with swine flu, say doctors, is that its initial symptoms are hardly different from ordinary flu. "Only the critically ill will seek healthcare,'' says Dr Mahasur. But in the critical patients, it's important to get access to medication and healthcare at the right time. Is the city public healthcare system geared for an emergency?      Civic additional commissioner Manisha Mhaiskar, who is in charge of public health, believes the corporation's battleplan is ready. "We are in a position to increase, in a short span, the number of ICU beds from 10 at present to 30,'' she says. At present, only Nair Hospital has 10 ICU beds. But other major civic hospitals such as KEM and Sion can organise 10 ICU beds in a short while, say the officials.      The corporation has already imparted training to around 400 doctors and 4,000 anganwadi workers to detect the swine flu symptoms at the earliest. "In the first wave, we noticed that 71% of the victims were women and children. We trained anganwadi workers and they can be mobilised to reach out to the community in a short time,'' said Mhaiskar.      But the most important tool in the battle against swine flu would be the special laboratory to test swine flu samples at affordable costs. While the BMC had promised in August to set up the lab within a couple of months, the civic laboratory is likely to open only in December. Mhaiskar clarifies that it was only last week that the civic standing committee approved the expenditure to procure a real-time PCR machine. "The process of procuring the equipment has begun, but it will take another three weeks before the laboratory is ready,'' she adds.