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INDIA'S 140-years old Monsoon Magic seems to be fading, or that's what the leading meteorologists believe. Within next 60-70 years there will be persistent droughts. Changes in weather pattern due to global warming could end India's 140-year honeymoon with the rains, cautioned Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology director BN Goswami while talking to newspersons here. This will force the government to lay more emphasis on arid farming and development of flood- and drought-resistant crops so as to retain the growth of the farm sector, he said.
"There is a real potential for monsoon to enter a megadrought state with high frequency of severe droughts. Add to it the melting of glaciers in Arctic that would affect the Indian monsoon," Mr Goswami noted. He pointed out that the melting of Arctic and Greenland ice due to global warming would lead to rise in water level in North Atlantic ocean.
"This will weaken a phenomenon called 'thermohaline' that circulates heat of Atlantic Ocean to help lower atmospheric temperature over Indian longitudes. This all weakens monsoon in the Indian sub-continent," he explained. Mr Goswami pointed out that the amount of rainfall in 10-15 cm range per day has increased in the last 50 years whereas the 5-10 cm range rainfall has decreased even though the average downpour has more or less remained the same. "Although the overall rainfall remained the same, erratic big downpours are happening more frequently. This leaves minimum scope for recharging of the ground water," he said.
Less ground water means less water for agriculture. The changes in weather pattern makes food production more vulnerable. So he urged agricultural scientists to work on solutions to face the mega drought in the coming few decades and improve per capita availability of foodgrains which has already fallen drastically.
The meteorologist also highlighted rising levels of green house gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. "This rise is unprecedented," the director said. He appealed to the policy makers to champion the cause to reduce the green house gas emissions and stop the mounting global warming in order to have stable monsoon. Country's 65% of farming depends on monsoon while only 35% depends on irrigation. "Global warming would lead to monsoon drought," Mr Goswami noted.
"There is a real potential for monsoon to enter a megadrought state with high frequency of severe droughts. Add to it the melting of glaciers in Arctic that would affect the Indian monsoon," Mr Goswami noted. He pointed out that the melting of Arctic and Greenland ice due to global warming would lead to rise in water level in North Atlantic ocean.
"This will weaken a phenomenon called 'thermohaline' that circulates heat of Atlantic Ocean to help lower atmospheric temperature over Indian longitudes. This all weakens monsoon in the Indian sub-continent," he explained. Mr Goswami pointed out that the amount of rainfall in 10-15 cm range per day has increased in the last 50 years whereas the 5-10 cm range rainfall has decreased even though the average downpour has more or less remained the same. "Although the overall rainfall remained the same, erratic big downpours are happening more frequently. This leaves minimum scope for recharging of the ground water," he said.
Less ground water means less water for agriculture. The changes in weather pattern makes food production more vulnerable. So he urged agricultural scientists to work on solutions to face the mega drought in the coming few decades and improve per capita availability of foodgrains which has already fallen drastically.
The meteorologist also highlighted rising levels of green house gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. "This rise is unprecedented," the director said. He appealed to the policy makers to champion the cause to reduce the green house gas emissions and stop the mounting global warming in order to have stable monsoon. Country's 65% of farming depends on monsoon while only 35% depends on irrigation. "Global warming would lead to monsoon drought," Mr Goswami noted.
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