Fast & furious: H1N1 to hit 2bn in 2 yr

PANDEMIC STARING AT THE FACE

Virus Claims 800 Lives In Last Four Months: WHO

New Delhi: Two billion—that's the number of people that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has estimated will get infected with the deadly H1N1 flu virus in the next two years. Earlier pandemics have infected onethird of the world's population. But this virus is especially dangerous.
    Why? Because it is brand new, that nobody has seen before. The threat is clear from the way the virus has spread till now. Over 160 countries have already confirmed over 1,30,000 cases, with the virus spreading as much in less than six weeks as past pandemic flu viruses spread in more than six months. WHO has already designated this as the "planet's fastest-moving pandemic". In most countries, those mostly infected belong to the age group of 12 to 17 years. Almost 800 people have died from it in the past four months—more than what the H5N1 bird flu strain has killed in six years.
    India is now worried and says it's just a matter of time before the country starts to see large scale community clusters of the virus. According to Dr Randeep Guleria, professor of medicine at the AIIMS, weather conditions like the end of monsoon and the winter months will be perfect for the H1N1 virus to thrive. "The current strain of H1N1 has high transmissibility rate which the H5N1 bird flu virus did not. Overcrowding in India will see the virus spread very fast in the community in the post-monsoon months. And since it is a new virus, there is no herd immunity against it," Dr Guleria said. An estimate says that 3-5 million people will be required to be vaccinated soon after the fullfledged pandemic hits India. Health officials in India are trying to determine which groups are most likely to get severely ill so measures can be taken. A meeting is scheduled next week to finalise the priority list.