Expect monsoon to hit Mumbai on time: IMD

Mumbai: Even as the sultry spell continued to make life miserable for Mumbaikars, the weather bureau gave the city a reason to cheer: Monsoon 2012 is expected to hit the city on time. 

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that there has been onset of the monsoon in southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. While the IMD is expecting the monsoon to hit Kerala on June 1, it is expected to arrive in Mumbai on June 10. 

    "The normal onset date for Mumbai is June 10. However, as the monsoon is a natural phenomenon, it cannot be predicted exactly," said V K Rajeev, director of weather forecast at IMD, Mumbai. "We always have to consider the probability of the monsoon arriving two days before or after the normal onset dates in each region," he added. 

    It takes 10 days for the monsoon to proceed from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to Kerala. While the monsoon is supposed to reach the Andaman Sea on May 20, last year, it hit the region on May 29 and Kerala the next day. It reached Mumbai by June 5. 

    The weather bureau says arrival of the monsoon in one place may not affect its onset in another area. In 2009, for example, the monsoon arrived in the Andamans on May 20 and reached Kerala four days later. However, the same year, the monsoon took a month—instead of the usual 10 days—to travel from Kerala to Mumbai. In 2008, the rains took 19 days to reach Kerala after hitting the Andaman Sea. 

    The IMD, however, said arrival of the monsoon was likely to stick to the normal dates this year. "The southwest monsoon for the country is likely to be about 90% to 110% normal this year," said a weather official from IMD, Delhi. 

    As of now, the monsoon is likely to advance with the help of the cross-equatorial flow, persistent cloudiness and fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls. "Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of the Andaman Sea during the next two days," read the IMD forecast on Thursday.