Monsoon threatens to take a break

New Delhi: After a good spell of rain over large parts of northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Uttarakhand, a break in the monsoon system is likely over the next few days, one that threatens to undo the gains recorded in July so far.      Met officials say a break in rainfall is expected between Saturday and next Thursday. Only very light sporadic showers may occur over the region, with the trends so far keeping with the prediction that the northwest would get the lowest rainfall.      But the repeated breaks in the monsoon are worrying, as, unless rainfall in July and August is close to levels anticipated by the Met department, the overall precipitation may fall further. The patchy monsoon has defied prediction models with even broad outcomes not easy to anticipate.      Rains may recede in the northwest, but Met officials said the monsoon is expected to strengthen over the southern peninsula after 2-3 days.      "Madden-Julian Oscillation, a combination of atmospheric circulation and tropical convection, which has been lying over the Indian Ocean for almost aweek now, is expected to move eastwards shortly. Once this shifts, the southern peninsular region will get better rainfall which will result in a simultaneous reduction in rainfall activity over northwest and north India," said Dr D Sivananda Pai, IMD's chief monsoon forecaster.      "Right now, due to the movement of the monsoon trough towards the Himalayan foothills, north and east India are witnessing widespread light to moderate showers. This trough will also move southwards by the beginning of the next week, which will result in a reduction in rainfall over these regions," Pai added. However, some experts point out that the coming week might not see an overall improvement in rainfall over the country.  K'taka may see worst drought in 42 years  Bangalore: Parched by a worrying 66% rainfall deficit, Karnataka is heading towards its worst drought in 42 years. From September 2011 to June-end 2012, the state has received just 231mm of rain against the average of 673mm. The northeast monsoon, pre-monsoon showers and the ongoing southwest monsoon have been singularly disappointing. TNN  Maharashtra sees over 50% sowing  Pune:State agriculture commissioner Umakant Dangat said major cereal and pulses-producing areas like Marathwada and Vidarbha have received good rainfall and sowing has been completed in more than 50% area. Of the 132.34 lakh hectares of kharif land in the state, 66.76 lakh hectares is under sowing, mainly in Vidarbha and Marathwada. TNN